Visa (V) recently saw an institutional trade on a private exchange (A Dark Pool), raising questions about the future direction of the company.
On December 23, 2024, a transaction took place involving 3,185,000 shares of Visa at $315.81, totaling approximately $1 billion.
This trade stands out as one of the largest prints we've seen, and with that, a critical question arises: Is Visa undergoing accumulation or distribution?
In this analysis, we'll dive into the technical indicators, Chaikin Money Flow, and broader market trends to help you understand what’s happening beneath the surface.
Dark Pool Print: A Sign of Institutional Activity
The dark pool trade in Visa represents a huge institutional move, and when we see this kind of activity, it’s a sign that large players are making significant decisions in the market. But the size of the transaction doesn’t tell us everything—what matters is understanding whether the institutions involved are accumulating shares (buying) or distributing them (selling).
What we can say for sure is that this dark pool print is an outlier compared to Visa's usual daily volume.
This transaction represents about 63.7% of Visa's average daily volume (ADV), making it a critical point to watch.
So, what does this tell us about the direction Visa might take?
Technical Breakdown: Key Levels to Watch
Wave 5 Target: $314.60
Visa has recently hit its Wave 5 target, which, according to Elliott Wave analysis, comes in at $314.60—a key resistance level. This target is a 1.618 Fibonacci extension, often seen as the final leg in a wave sequence. At this level, price reversals are common. If Visa fails to break through this resistance, it could signal a potential downward move. On the other hand, if Visa holds and breaks above this level, the bulls may take control.
John Person’s Pivot: $315.30
John Person's pivot point of $315.30 is another critical level, almost identical to the Wave 5 target. If Visa continues to hover near this level, it reinforces the importance of resistance at these prices. A break above $315.30 could suggest bullish momentum, while a rejection here would likely reinforce the bearish outlook.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)
8 EMA: $315.65 — The 8 EMA has been trending downward since December 27, 2024, signaling short-term bearish sentiment.
21 EMA: $314.29 — Acting as immediate support, the 21 EMA suggests that Visa may hold near these levels if it faces downside pressure.
50 EMA: $307.68 — A significant level of medium-term support, should Visa break below the short-term EMAs.
200 EMA: $285.46 — The 200 EMA represents long-term support and would be a critical level in the event of a substantial pullback.
MACD: Bearish Momentum
The MACD has shown downward momentum since November 18, 2024, further confirming that Visa has been in a bearish trend for several weeks. Until we see a shift in the MACD, it’s prudent to remain cautious about bullish positions.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): A Mixed Signal
One of the most useful indicators to gauge the market’s buying and selling pressure is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). This indicator has been neutral following the December dark pool print:
Dec 23, 2024: 0.08 — A slight positive reading, suggesting mild accumulation.
Dec 31, 2024: 0.00 — A neutral reading, implying indecision in the market.
Jan 2025: 0.10 — A slight uptick in buying pressure, but still relatively neutral.
The CMF readings indicate that there’s been no clear decision on whether institutions are accumulating or distributing shares.
A sustained positive CMF would suggest accumulation, while a negative reading could signal distribution. For now, the neutral CMF points to uncertainty.
Volume Insights: Lack of Follow-Through
On December 20, 2024, we saw a 4x average volume bar in Visa, signaling institutional interest at the time. However, since then, volume has remained broadly below average, suggesting a lack of follow-through or conviction in the market.
This could be due to the holiday slowdown, but it's worth noting that major index volumes (SPY, QQQ, IWM) have returned to Q4 2024 levels in early January 2025.
This indicates that institutional participation could be picking up again.
Bullish or Bearish? What’s Next for Visa?
Bullish Case: Accumulation
The dark pool print may signal institutional accumulation at key technical levels ($314-$316).
The slight improvement in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) suggests renewed interest from buyers.
If Visa can break above its resistance levels at $314.60 and $315.30, it may indicate upside potential.
Bearish Case: Distribution
The MACD has confirmed a bearish trend since November 18, 2024, and continues to signal downside momentum.
The 8 EMA is trending downward, reinforcing short-term bearish sentiment.
If Visa fails to break above key resistance levels and struggles to hold its support levels, we could see continued distribution from institutions.
What Would You Do Next on the Visa Dark Pool Print? This Is What We Are Doing:
The best approach to trading the Visay dark pool print right now is to stay patient and observe.
Watch for price action around the critical levels of $314.60 to $316.00. If Visa breaks above these, it may signal accumulation and could be a buying opportunity. Conversely, if the price fails to hold at these levels and we see continued bearish momentum, the downside could be significant.
Volume and Chaikin Money Flow will be crucial indicators to track in the coming days. A surge in volume alongside a positive CMF reading could confirm an accumulation phase. On the other hand, a lack of volume or a negative CMF could suggest distribution or downside pressure.
As always, trade smart and keep your risk management intact. The market is still in a delicate phase, and waiting for confirmation will give you the edge you need to make the right moves.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always conduct your research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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